A new tool uses predictive analytics to give transplant hospitals more information to help them make the best decisions for their patients. Launched by United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS), this tool is available now at no charge to all kidney programs and is accessible through DonorNet MobileSM. UNOS developed DonorNet Mobile Predictive Analytics (DPA) to help every kidney program honor the gift of life and increase organ utilization.
A decision-making tool with real-life impact, DPA aims to show transplant programs the predicted impact accepting or declining an organ offer could have for a patient. It’s intended to supplement existing data or clinical judgement used by transplant programs to find the right organs for their patients.
How it works
Used at the time of an organ offer, DPA uses two statistical models to display:
- Time-to-next-offer: A prediction of the length of time the candidate could wait for another organ offer.
- Mortality prediction: A visualization of the candidate’s predicted survival likelihood over the next three years without a transplant.
What is predictive analytics?
- Broadly, predictive analytics is the use of data, statistics and modeling to predict the likelihood of future outcomes. For this tool, modeling is used to provide insights at the time of an organ offer. Using predictive data to improve offer acceptance has been recommended by The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM).
Development and monitoring
Aimed at reducing organ non-utilization rates, the tool was developed in collaboration with Accenture Federal Services. The project began in 2019, shortly after the OPTN Ad Hoc Systems Performance Committee recommended investigating predictive analytics at the time of organ offer, with a goal of improving waitlisted patient, living donor and transplant recipient outcomes, an Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) strategic goal.
A pilot phase of the project began in early 2022, and participating transplant programs have given feedback to help shape the model and user experience for the tool. An advisory panel will continue meeting to evaluate monitoring reports on the tool, and report to the OPTN Board of Directors.
Education on how to use the tool, as well as a deeper explanation of the tool, the model and its limitations can be found in UNOS Connect. Additionally, members of the UNOS predictive analytics team will be at OPTN regional meetings January-March 2023 to present about the tool, and answer member questions about how it works.
Learn more about predictive analytics and how it’s helping the community. Read about Offer Filters, another tool aimed at helping kidney programs get the right organs to the right patients, faster.